tv Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo CNBC December 8, 2009 4:00pm-5:00pm EST
continues in just a second. [ bell ringing ] and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody. welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo on the floor of the new york stock exchange. stocks down on wall street on concerns about a global economic slowdown and the chances of a strong recovery. earnings forecast was weaker than expected from 3m and a mixed sales report from mcdonald's contributing to a weaker start. bank down 3% on average. that had investors seeking safe havens like the dollar and treasuries. president obama unveiled a new plan to jump start job creation, tax breaks for small businesses and increase spending on infrastructure. paul o'neill will give us his take on whether the plan will
stimulate job growth. we are talking with valerie jarrett, special advisory to the president. the dow jones industrial average down 104%, 10,285. s&p 500 gave up 11 points 1,091. the nasdaq down 17 points, 2172. scott walker our eye on the floor of the nyc. you mentioned we are getting news out of the tech sector. >> absolutely. texas instruments is coming out. it will be interesting to hear what texas instruments has to say about the lay of the land. the markets under pressure throughout. a number of reasons why investors were doing the flight to quality play. certainly some of the geoeconomic concerns in greece and dubai, industrial production in germany was weak. the dollar strengthening so oil and energy stocks were to the downside as you take a look at the markets at the close.
the reasons the markets had a number of troubles throughout much of the day. those disappointing earnings from 3m, mcdonald's and kroger. kroger stock got hammered throughout the day today. take a look at the dollar index because as the dollar index slowly and steadily moved higher throughout the day, the stock market weakened. that took energy and oil down and gold down. take a look at energy stocks as well. we are mentioning exxon and chevron two dow components were among the weakest. schlumberger and marathon down. mcdonald's same store sales particularly in the u.s. came lower than expectations. stocks down 2.25%. city and wells fargo continue to spar with the government how much money they need to exit the
t.a.r.p. program and on top of that concerns weighing on the financial stocks. citi closing under $4. meredith whitney on "squawk box" reiterating her bearish feelings on the financials. tight credit, et cetera. kroger was a stock that had weak earnings. the stock got hammered. kroger was down 12%. all of this overshadowing the fact that fedex, really an economic bellwether boosted its fourth quarter outlook by more than 10% on strong international demand. that sets the table for what is going to happen after the bell with texas instruments with the mid quarter update. that should happen around 5:00 or so. we will get an indication of chip space. that positive news in terms of shares for apple. the price target up to 260 bucks. >> i wonder if anticipation of
the texas call is due to semi-conductor stocks. >> zylinx was a chip winner. that may lead to optimism. txn. scott whoper in with the latest. president obama speaking at the brookings institution today outlined his plan on jump starting job creation. the nation must spend its way out of the recession. tax breaks for people who weatherize their home and give small businesses new incentives to hire new workers. >> we're proposing a complete elimination of capital gains taxes on small business investment along with an extension of write offs to encourage small businesses to expand in the coming year. i believe it's worthwhile to create a tax incentive to encourage small businesses to add and keep employees and i'm
going to work with congress to pass one. >> meanwhile the nation's ceos are not quite ready to start hiring. they say there are too many uncertainties. a survey by business roundtable found 19% of ceos plan to expand work force. 31% said they expect to cut jobs in the united states. ceos are turning more optimistic about the broad economy. 68% of the respondents expect company sales to increase in the next six months, 41% expect to increase capital spending up from 21% the quarter before. coming up, top white house adviser valerie jarrett will be with me telling me if the president's job plan will be enough to get companies hiring again. the markets today, the stock market looking good heading into the end of the year, but both of my guests say the moves to the upside are starting to slow down.
they give us their take. scott ren with wells fargo and quincy crosby, market strategist with prudential financial. thanks for spending the time. >> quincy, you have been talking about money moving into this market. today we saw money moving into the dollar. tell me if you think that is sustainable and how things are playing out going into 2010? >> maria, the dollar gained strength on worries and on good news. that tends to obviously move the market down lower. at some point that is going to end and the market is going to realize a stronger dollar is good for this country. but with that said the market over the last couple of weeks has been showing signs of slowing down and being tired. since the end of october we've seen the telecom names outperforming, we've seen
utilities outperforming. that is a defensive posture. what we have told clients for a number of months is have a barbell strategy. protect to the upside and downside. going into 2010 we think the u.s. market the large cap names the global players within the u.s. will do well. not just on global growth but growth in the united states. again, a strategy that protects to the upside, protects to the downside but continuation of global growth. >> scott, it feels like the markets are getting tired. we are looking at things slowing down year end and the volume is light. what are your expectations and do you think the most recent selling we've seen is indicating something is to come in 20 so in the way of declines? >> well maria, i think 2010 you are going to see much more modest gains than we've seen this year.
a couple of things are going on. the 65% move off the march lows. there is a lot of technical resistance up here. if you look at the charts, i'm not the technician for the firm, but you will see there is a chart resistance up here. what we have been telling our clients for the last 12 months is reduce defensive positions, get more cyclical. we see that pattern continues into 2010 and beyond. in the near term pullback and consolidation is likely to happen. in 2010, maybe the market is up 6%, 8%. most of those gains are going to come early in the year. we want to keep that cyclical posture but realize the market is not going to do in 2010 what it did in 2009. >> you think the easy money has been made? >> definitely. >> it sounds like you agree with that as well, quincy? >> yeah. absolutely. >> great to have you on the program. >> thanks. >> thanks, maria.
the other stories we are following on the "closing bell" ticker. callion securities initiating coverage of apple. they have a price target of $260 a share. the firm telling clients apple should get a boost from the app store and the launch of a tablet computer. stock up 0.5%. auto zone reporting a 9% increase in fourth quarter profits. they made $143 million. consumers spent more money repairing their cars rather than purchasing new ones. up 2.3%. brown forman up. they made $147 million due to strong sales of jack daniels brand and doesn't digit cut in advertising expenses. it is taking it up the wall street estimates.
the stock was down 0.25%. citi and wells fargo, the latest banks trying to repay t.a.r.p. some of the banks are talking about repaying too quickly. should you be betting on the bank or is there too much risk in financials? former treasury secretary paul o'neill will join us, telling us whether the current plans are the right ones to turn this economy around. you are watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.
welcome back. goldman sachs is hosting a two-day financial services conference featuring some of the biggest names in the industry. mary? >> among those presenting this afternoon pnc ceo and j.p. morgan ceo. while his bank is considered one of the strongest, j.p. morgan's chief took a cautious and critical stand on the bank's performance, noting it is doing terrible in consumer credit.
he cautioned that commercial credit should weaken in the coming year but in a more upbeat moment he noted losses in the home portfolio are not getting worse. diamond talked about regulation. there needs to be a process to wind down firms now deemed too big to fail. >> the only way that doesn't cause a complete disaster. failure is not a bad thing. >> when asked if regulatory uncertainty was hampering decisions at the company diamond said no. he said economic uncertainty was having a bigger impact the reason why the bang won't raise its dividend until the second quarter of next year. pnc ceo took the stage. rohr repeated that pnc plans to repay t.a.r.p. funds through 2010. he raised the forecast for the acquisition of national city to
$1.5 billion to $1.2 billion and the net interest income will be higher in the fourth quarter. he noted the economy is bombing, rohr is expecting it is going to be a long road back. >> mary thompson with the latest there. on financials with bank of america getting the green light to repay $45 billion in t.a.r.p. money, citi and wells fargo are gearing up to repay t.a.r.p. money. there is concern they may be repaying too quickly. joining me is daniel alpert at westwood capital, fred cannon with kbw. gentlemen, nice to have you on the program. fred, do you think citi and wells should pay the t.a.r.p. money back? >> the government wants their money back. wells fargo can raise capital to offset it and private capital is better than public capital. so yes. citi, i think a partial repayment possibly. citi has a long workout ahead of
it and not ready to pay back the whole thing. >> daniel, will they be able to do a capital raise and get the reception we saw from other financials? >> a couple of weeks ago i would have said absolutely yes. as we get closer to christmas and the market gets more dicey, one never knows. it is politically attractive for the treasury to say we are getting our money back, t.a.r.p. is winding down. the government is of two minds on this issue. there are folks who realize that going forward right now into 2010 we still face some very, very serious head winds. we believe at westwood we are about to enter the final act of the housing downturn. we have the commercial property downturn ahead. we have markets that are trading really in contrast to each other. the debt capital markets and equity markets can't seem to
agree what direction the economy is going in. the big $64,000 or $65 trillion question really is what happens next year if there's another leg down? i can't imagine tim geithner showing up before congress with ben bernanke saying by the way, we want to do this all over again. >> sounds like you are negative going into 2010. does that mean you are taking money out of the table? >> i'm completely out of financial services. >> completely out of financial services. fred, does the banking sector have adequate capital? you have questions of the capital ratios and what they are for the banks. what is your sense and are they well capitalized or not? >> a couple of things. they are pretty well capitalized. capital requirements are going to go higher. a lot of capital raise is going to come through earnings. let's put t.a.r.p. in
perspective. there are 670 banks who got t.a.r.p. money. that t.a.r.p. money is very important for a lot of banks going into next year especially with the commercial real estate exposure. >> do you agree with daniel, in fact, we will see another problem for the banking sector because of issues like commercial real estate? >> i'm not as bearish on commercial real estate. i think it is a manageable issue and earnings can help the banks get through it. on residential real estate the problem is not severe. most of the risk is on the government through fannie, freddie and fha. >> dan, how about the broad market? >> there are several issues. one is as banks require more capital they are going to have to issue more, let's face it, diluted shares. if we don't have the earnings, and i don't believe we will in
q-1, q-2, eventually the banks will have to succumb. >> you think the diluted situations sends the stocks down? you would be taking money out of financials. any other groups that will get impacted by that? >> obviously, you have the entire real estate sector that is going to be very, very dicey going forward. certainly anything in insurance, any of the other financial, fre sectors will be impacted. >> fred, are there areas you are recommend something. >> we like the largest banks who have repaid t.a.r.p. plus globally they are in a good position. let's face it. there are a lot of clients who would rather do a deal with a bank that doesn't have government ownership than one that does. >> absolutely. do you think we'll see citi and
wells pay back the t.a.r.p.? >> i think wells fargo is in a good position to do what is necessary. it is negotiating with the government. citi can make a partial repayment. but the government ownership of citi will be there a long period? >> three years, five years? is that your view? >> citi is in a long workout situation. >> dan, do you agree with that? >> yes. if we continue to push these banks to repay t.a.r.p. and they have -- you have to remember, the banks are sitting on a number of residential home loans and commercial loans. those go down at a more rapid pace they need more capital period. >> gentlemen, great conversation. see you soon. fred cannon, daniel alpert. cisco hosting an analyst meeting, laying out the hiring strategy. we have the details from cisco coming up.
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continuing to sing the optimistic tune they sung in the conference call. john chambers reiterated the 12 to 17% growth outlook. that is something he said wouldn't happen until he saw real signs of a sustained recovery. he is telling us exclusively cisco will embark on a major hiring initiative in 2010 cutting 2,000 jobs in the past year. >> with 30 market ajassen sis we are going into, we are adding resources in many and most of them. we are hiring off the college campus again. we will go slow until we watch how quickly the economy recovers. barring a surprise we will be a major higher in the u.s. and around the world. >> reporter: not adding to the payroll by acquisition but creating more jobs.
cisco will continue its ambitious acquisition plan, seven deals this year, four in a single quarter. its latest play for tamberg not going as smootly as they anticipated. they spent $7 billion in total deals and remains undeterred by increase federal scrutiny with tech mergers and acquisitions. >> we've done over 135 acquisitions. we are the company most companies want to be acquired by for the shareholders and customers and employee base. the government is doing their job. their job is to make sure you maintain competition in the industry. the great news is we have probably 30 major competitors in every field. if you haven't got good competitors you are not in exciting markets. >> reporter: indeed, how does john chambers continue to compete with hewlett packard as they step on each other in so
many markets. they were once proud partners and now freely use the word competitor and it is getting pretty significant to say the least. how does john chambers feel about competing with hp? we have that on "fast money" and on the blog techcheck.cnbc.com. >> this is getting interesting. coming up, we fill you in on stocks making news in the after hours trading session, first an exclusive interview with former treasury secretary paul o'neill. what he thinks about t.a.r.p. funds. here is a look at some of today's "winners and losers."
top headlines. stocks selling off on wall street amid new concerns of the global economy. disappointing earnings from 3m and mixed data from mcdonald's. 19% of the country's ceos expect to hire workers. 31% are cutting payrolls. president obama was speaking at the brookings institution today, proposes new infrastructure spending, tax incentives for people to make their homes more energy efficient. president obama taking you steps to jump start job creation. we will talk about that with paul o'neill. will he be able to keep his pledge of cutting the deficit in half by the end of his first term. we will talk about that with paul o'neill. also valerie jarrett will be with us answering questions about the economy as well when the "closing bell" comes right back. stay with us.
billion. this was anticipated by analysts on wall street who noticed significant strength on smart phone. ti shares up 14% since mid october when reporting earnings. we'll see what this news does to ti shares. >> jim, thanks very much for the breaking news. that is why we saw semi-conductor stocks do well today. anticipation we would see a good report and texas updated the guidance and raised it. today's round of employment initiatives is one of the issues being tackled in washington. it promises to be a busy holiday season. joining me in a cnbc exclusive with his thoughts on the economy, the fed and treasury is paul o'neill, special consultant
to blackstone and treasury secretary under george w. bush. so good to have you on the program. >> thank you. >> let me ask you about the current policies out of washington. do you agree with how the president had handled job creation. today he was at the brookings institution talking about job creation efforts. >> i have to tell you i'm dubious about the government's ability to incent people to hire jobs. i think facing demand that requires them to have more people to produce the goods or services that somebody wants and wants to pay for. so if you are a restaurant and you have 15 employees and they are running around like crazy and people are still coming in you hire another person not generally because the government gives you an incentive to hire another person. for big companies like alcoa and
international paper, i never hired a single person because of a government program. that is true that if the government, say, through interest rates lowers the cost of capital, that can change the things you are interested in investing in. but i'm dubious about the government's ability to actually create more employment. i have an idea that i think is better than the things the president talked about today. >> what is your idea? >> it would do this. it would pay cities and towns to hire unemployed crafts people off the unemployment rolls and put them to work tearing down derelict and abandoned properties all over the country. it would be quick. we don't need to design anything. the cities and towns own these properties. we could start on monday morning. we could put people to legitimate work. if there isn't a buyer for the
property we could plant it in greenery. >> to be fair, the president did talk about investing in infrastructure. not exactly what you are talking about. >> i don't know what that means. if we had a program where they started tearing down derelict and abandoned properties, on the east coast especially, if you take amtrak to washington, you can see hundreds of miles of derelict and abandoned properties. think of a blessing that got turned down, people got paid and turned into green space and back on the tax rolls. people could see that. the thing i don't like about the bunch of the proposals, it is not visible. you can't see what is happening with your borrowed money. i would like to see people on the unemployment rolls get jobs and do something constructive. we can say that is where our borrowed money is going. >> it is a very good idea. it puts people to work and increases or improves the infrastructure of the country. no doubt about it.
let me ask you about the t.a.r.p. funds. what did you think about the government's handling of t.a.r.p. funds and do you think now the remaining t.a.r.p. money should be used toward the labor market and job creation plan? >> two things i always thought t.a.r.p. was a mistaken idea. i believe we could have taken care of the liquidity crisis by putting a value on troubled assets and a government guarantee on them. they would have traded like cash. >> how would you get the value of it? if the market is deciding the value? everybody was trying to figure out what are these things worth. >> i tell you what i would have done. i would have taken the things that had unknown value and called it a quarantine account and forced the institutions to hold them to maturity on average would have been five years which would have cleaned up that program. i want to come back to your question about t.a.r.p. $700 billion of appropriations is not the same as $700 billion
of spending. so the congress authorized $700 billion. that doesn't create the spending. so why we should now divert these funds into some other purpose is beyond me. i believe we ought to be honest. if we want to spend some more things for the action the president was talking about, we ought to appropriate the money. we shouldn't try to fool the people with accounting gimmicks, saying we are going to use the t.a.r.p. funds is an accounting gimmick. why do we want to do that, maria? >> yeah. what about, i'm remembering what vice president dick cheney famously told you that reagan proved deficits don't matter. >> right. that was wrong when he said it. it is wrong now. it is wrong forever. >> should the deficit and cutting into the deficit be a bigger priority, do you think? the president said we should be spending our way out of this recession, spending on infrastructure. you have a group of critics who say we can't spend anymore money
because we have all of this debt. >> i think a looming overhang to our market and to world marks is the $59 trillion worth of unfunded liabilities we have as a people and, you know, i have to tell you i fault the administration for not paying any attention to this. the president is now ordered the budget director to come up with a budget that begins to do something about this. i tell you what we need to do. we need fundamental tax reform. we have 13,000 pages in the federal tax code now. the health bill alone is going to add another 3,000 pages. it is impossible to administer it. we are currently undercollecting $400 billion a year because it is not possible to administer. we need fundamental tax reform and we've got to do something about the unfunded liabilities. >> where is this undercollected money? where do you get that number?
>> the university of michigan studied the actual collections against what we should be getting from all of the sources of revenue in the country. it is a highly recognized number as the amount of undercollection we're doing. and it's because the tax code is simply not capable of administration. when i was -- when the irs worked for me at the treasury, there were 110,000 dedicated people there. their job was effectively to climb up a vertical steel wall poured with grease every day. that is how impossible the job was. >> how is tim geithner doing in your view? >> tim is a good guy. with the problems he has had to struggle with he has done a good job. i think former secretaries shouldn't have a say. it is not fair to sharp shoot the current secretary. >> ben bernanke, should he be
reconfirmed. >> i think so. >> great to have you on the program. paul o'neill former treasury secretary. when you come back we want to talk more about health care. >> great. >> we hope you will come back soon. >> i will. >> darren rovell on new information on tiger woods. >> nell sen has said they have not seen an ad in primetime networks or 19 cable networks involving tiger woods since november 29th. he was in the accident on november 27th and all the events that you've maybe been following have happened since. the last ad that nielsen said was the 30-second gillette ad on november 29th. have advertisers pulled their ads? not necessarily. there were only eight tiger woods ads according to neilsen
that ran in november. no company has pulled its relationship. gatorade did discontinue its tiger woods line. they say it has nothing to do with the recent events. >> darren rovell with the latest there. darren, president obama unveiling a new plan to jump start job creation, proposing new spending on tax incentives for small businesses. we discuss the road to recovery with valerie jarrett. ms. jarrett, so nice to have you on the program. thanks for joining us. >> my pleasure. how are you maria? >> good. >> good. >> is it is a second stimulus plan? >> i would call it a targeted focus initiatives to get the biggest bang for the buck and help create jobs quickly to get our economy going again. >> tell me what the most important job is in terms of creating new jobs. what is number one on the
agenda? is it the infrastructure or the tax breaks for small business? in your view what is most important? >> i don't think we have to chose. they are all important. they serve different functions. everywhere we go the people tell us growth happens in small business. providing important capital and sn incentives for small business to grow. our infrastructure is crumbling so if we invest in bridges and tunnels and airports we can strengthen our country's backbone and create jobs. it is important to focus on energy efficiency. giving consumers an incentive to retrofit their homes is key. this is a part of the preside president's ongoing efforts to get the economy going. the reaction we have gotten from the business community and labor and the people at the jobs forum, it has been embraced
wholeheartedly. >> ms. jarrett, let me ask you about the comment the president made about eliminating capital gains for small business. would the president consider not allowing the bush tax cuts to expire? >> we are looking at everything, maria. the key is to figure out strategically what will create jobs in the short term. when the president campaigned and throughout his first ten months in office he made it clear we have to bring down the federal deficit as well. that is a priority. the first effort has to be to jump start the economy. over the long term the way to have a sustainable reduction in our deficit is have a healthy economy and revenues flowing again. that is a priority. we are heartened by the job loss down to 11,000 considering a year ago it was 700,000. as long as there is a single american who wants to work who doesn't have a job the president and his team are going to keep working and thinking of new ideas. >> the president pledged to cut
the deficit in half by the end of his first term. how realistic is that goal? >> it is very realistic. he said it again today. he directed his budget director to focus on ways to reduce the deficit. when he took office the most important thing was to jump start the economy. if you think of where we were a year ago we were on the brink of an economic meltdown. as a result of the president's very bold steps, working with congress he passed the recovery bill. we managed the t.a.r.p. funds extremely well. now what can we do constructively to bring down the unemployment rate. >> what about the t.a.r.p. money in terms of using it on job creation? the president signalled that could be on tap. why would you want to tap in that source of funding? >> it is available. the $200 billion is money we didn't expect to have. we think it is important to use
whatever resources are available to get the economy going and create jobs. let's face it. 10% unemployment rate is unacceptable in this country. the president in consultation with a wide range of economists, labor, business community, academicians are looking for ways strategically to jump start the economy. if we are successful in jump starting the economy and see the growth we have seen over the last couple of mont that will help with the deficit as well. >> the numbers range but most people will say we are looking at a loss of jobs of more than 7 million since the beginning of the recession. some people have it at 10 million actually. when do you expect to see job creation if, in fact, the president's initiatives take hold? >> i'm not the economist who is going to make projections but i will say is what we've seen from
the recovery act is according to cbo we have grown 1.6 million jobs, jobs that wouldn't be here if it was not for the recovery act. we are on the right track. the key is to figure out every day what more can we do to bring down the unemployment rate. the president made a great deal of progress. when he took office we were losing 700,000 jobs a month. this past month is 11,000. it is still unacceptable but a great deal of progress in the right direction. >> much of the white house initiatives depend on jump starting small business growth. is a one-year reprieve on capital gains enough? would you consider extending that or more incentives for small business or larger businesses? >> let's take it one step at a time. the president outlined what he thinks makes sense after we did due diligence. we know small businesses are the backbone of our economy.
we have consulted with large businesses and they are telling us they have to extend lines of credit so their suppliers can stay in business and meet their demand. we have to increase availability of resources and capital from the banks as well. we have a lot of challenges but i think today was an important step in the right direction. >> so many people talk about how this country has changed. the economy of america has changed from manufacturing based economy to a technology based and services based economy. and people worry that those jobs are gone, the manufacturing jobs. i mean, are you really talking about replacing those jobs with green jobs? you can't possibly replace all the jobs lost in manufacturing with green jobs and what does a steelworker know about creating solar panels? do we need extra new retraining programs in place? >> well, that was a mouthful. so let me take it bit by bit.
manufacturing is not dead. we have a healthy manufacturing jobs that are gone and may not come back. we do have to have extensive training programs to retrain our workforce and prepare them for the jobs of the future. green jobs are very important, and we have a whole slew of initiatives that are dedicated to trying to put funds into renewable energy, this began with the recovery act, we were focusing on renewable energy, and wind and solar and so i think you have to take it as a package and say, how can we go through multiple fronts, multiple approaches, divorce strategy, to make sure we grow our economy and make businesses want to invest in our country again. and so i think it's a multistrategy approach, and we're well off and running on that approach. >> we so appreciate your time tonight, thanks for joining us. >> thank you. i hope to see you soon. up next, texas instruments raised its quarterly guidance. how is wall street reacting?
i'm louisa bojesen. how is the british government going to cut the country's ballooning deficit. all eyes are on the prebudget report. the chancellor delivers that at 12:30 gmt. we'll continue our coverage from the u.n.'s climate summit. staying in copenhagen, the energy company is scheduled to ipo tomorrow. we'll see how much demand there is for that particular stock. tune in to cnbc world to catch all the action overseas. for a smarter way to trade online. only fidelity lets you back-test your strategies against an entire portfolio of stocks. plus you'll get advanced, customizable trading platforms. and you get the kind of execution
the other segments expected to balance that out. the union has had a plan to shrink its balance sheet. the union is shrinking in the right places, places like media, where they're cutting their exposure. texas instruments raising its guidance at the bell. the company's particularly raising the lower end of the ranges, now looking for a profit of 47 to 51 cents a share, instead of 42-50, the revenue estimate. 3.9 to 4.02. did you see the stock is down after hours, maybe a by the rumors sell the news thing, and maybe some disappointment on the guidance. the company will hold a conference call at the top of the hour to explain what's going on. cke network released its september sales overall. carl's jr.'s sales are down.
h hardees doing a little better. barrett gold down nearly 5%. >> thank you. we'll tell you what may move the markets tomorrow, we'll get you set for the opening bell. (announcer) we call it the american renewal. because we believe in the strength of american businesses. ge capital understands what small businesses need to grow and create jobs. today, over 300,000 businesses rely on ge capital for the critical financing they need to help get our economy back on track. the american renewal is happening. right now.
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this is what i'm watching for on wednesday, day two of the goldman sachs financial services conference, with presentations from u.s. bancorp and mellon. >> the results of 21 billion in ten-year supply. the auctions are always important, especially going into the three-year end. tomorrow we're waiting for the wholesale trade numbers and economists expect the inventory numbers to continue. we have to go back to august '08 to find a time when wholesalers added inventories.